摘要
提出了基于遗传算法的一套操作简便、通用的 TR建模方案 ,并成功地将 TR模型用于相应流量法去预测洪水 ,实例计算的结果说明其可行性和有效性 .
Threshold regressive(TR)model is suggested to describe the complex nonlinear relations between upper reach flood peak discharge and lower one of a river,and a simple and general scheme is presented to deduce TR model.Both threshold values and regressive coefficients of TR model can be optimized with accelerating genetic algorithm proposed by the authors,and the difficulty problem of modeling of TR can be resolved,which gives a strong tool for wide use of modeling of TR can be resolved,which gives a strong tool for wide use of TR model.The example shows that the scheme is practical and efficient,and that TR model can effectively control and reduce model errors,and ensure good forecasting stability and accuracy of the model by means of the threshold valves.The method can be applied to forecast nonlinear time series in various engineering practices.
出处
《水电能源科学》
2000年第1期1-4,共4页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金! ( 49871 0 1 8)
中国博士后科学基金
四川大学高速水力学国家重点实验室开放基金!( 990 4 )
关键词
洪水预报
非线性
门限回归模型
遗传算法
河道
flood forecast
forecasting method of corresponding discharge
nonlinear
threshold regressive model
genetic algorithm
