摘要
建立交通流短时预测状态空间模型,研究混合状态下城市快速路交通流短时预测.结合城市快速路自由流状态、拥挤流状态和阻塞流状态下交通流参数的时间和空间分布特性,基于交通流守恒方程和速度动态模型,借鉴偏微分方程组求解时空离散的思想,建立三种状态下交通流短时预测模型;同时考虑进出口匝道、车道数变更以及道路坡度等因素的影响,将交通流短时预测模型转化为交通流短时预测状态空间模型,实现混合状态下交通流短时预测.研究表明,该方法能够实现混合状态下道路网内的交通流短时预测,预测精度可达90.23%.相同条件下,经典自回归滑动平均模型的预测精度仅为81%.
Short-term traffic flow prediction for multi traffic states on urban expressway network is carried out in this paper.The model for multi traffic states is proposed by integrating the spatial and the temporal distribution characteristics of traffic flow parameters under free traffic,congested traffic and jam traffic respectively.Based on the classical traffic flow conservation equation,the ideology of spatial and temporal dispersions in partial differential equations is adopted to establish short-time traffic flow prediction model. Meanwhile,the impact factors,such as on and off ramp,lane change and road slope are considered,which convenes short-term traffic flow prediction model into short-time traffic flow prediction state space model.Finally,the short-term traffic flow prediction for multi traffic states on urban expressway network is realized.The empirical research shows that compared with the classic ARMA model,the proposed method can not only realize short-term traffic flow prediction for multi traffic states on urban expressway network but also achieve an accuracy of 90.23%.In the same condition,the accuracy of ARMA model is 81%.
出处
《物理学报》
SCIE
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第1期44-52,共9页
Acta Physica Sinica
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(批准号:2006CB705500)
国家自然科学基金(批准号:51178032)
中国发展研究基金会2009年度"通用汽车.中国发展研究青年奖学金"
北京交通大学优秀博士生科技创新基金(批准号:141082522)资助的课题~~
