摘要
以混合动力和纯电动公交车为研究对象,基于购置成本和使用成本构建全生命周期成本模型,利用GREET模型分析"油井到车轮"二氧化碳排放量,并与传统柴油公交车对比,分析50万公里名义寿命周期内乐观和保守两种情景下新能源公交车的发展前景。结果表明:在乐观情景下,纯电动公交车拥有最优的生命周期成本和二氧化碳减排量,较柴油车分别低37%和35%;在保守情景下,混合动力公交车拥有与柴油公交车持平的生命周期成本及较低的二氧化碳排放量,较同时期柴油车低30%,纯电动公交车的生命周期成本则远高于柴油车。未来10年混合动力公交车具备良好的应用前景,纯电动公交车则需要电源结构优化和电池技术突破之后才能显示较强的竞争力。
The authors took hybrid electric bus and battery electric bus as research subjects,built lifecycle cost model based on acquisition cost and using cost,calculated Well-to-Wheel carbon dioxide emission based on GREET model,analyzed foreground of new energy buses in aggressive scenario and conservative scenario compared with conventional diesel bus with 5×105km nominal lifecycle.According to the result,in the aggressive scenario,battery electric bus will obtain signally lifecycle cost and emission advantage,37% and 35% lower than diesel bus.While in the conservative scenario,hybrid electric bus will obtain reasonable emission advantage,30% lower than diesel bus and lifecycle cost is as much as diesel bus,but battery electric bus will have markedly lifecycle cost disadvantage.In the future 10 years,hybrid electric bus will have a better prospect,while battery electric bus requires power structure optimization and battery technology breakthroughs to display its competitiveness.
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第12期57-65,共9页
China Soft Science
基金
上海市科技发展基金软科学研究项目(11692103800)
上汽教育基金(2010ZCYJ03-A)
