摘要
旅行时间是影响乘客路径选择的因素,然而,也是路径选择的结果。轨道交通自动售检票系统详细记录了与出行相关的时间信息,因此可以用来推算路径。首先将一次出行划分为若干阶段,并且分析各阶段涉及的随机性因素;在考虑现场实际的基础上,完成对系统运行和乘客出行的建模。然后,基于出行阶段的相互独立性,设计了用以推算乘客出行路径的方法,并且设计了双盲实验对方法进行验证。最后,案例分析显示,利用票卡交易数据、列车运行图和辅助的步行调查,该方法可以方便而有效地推算乘客路径,进而有助于客流分配和票务清分。
Known is that journey time is one primary factor affecting route choice; however, journey time is also the outcome of that choice. This understanding leads to the idea that journey time has the potential to provide insight into route choice. A rail journey was decomposed first. Then eaclh component was studied with a focus on uncertainties involved. Second, motivated by the independence of those components, methods were designed, also validated, to infer Platform Elapsed Time （PET） for through stations, Platform Elapsed Time-Transfer （PET-Trans） for transfer stations using smartcard transactional data, train schedules, and some complementary manual surveys. Then the journey time distribution of any path could be established, upon which methods were proposed to infer path coefficients. After data preparations, methods were applied to two typical ODs from Beijing Metro. Key values about route choice were obtained and interpreted in detail. The outcome is promising in passenger flow calculation.
出处
《交通与运输》
2011年第B12期85-90,共6页
Traffic & Transportation
