摘要
利用2006—2008年石家庄市紫外线监测数据,分析了近3年紫外线辐射特征,结果表明:石家庄市紫外线等级1～4级之间,其中1级的日数有175天,2级251天,3级220天,4级432天,年平均日数分别为58、84、73天和144天。紫外线指数"较强"级别出现的频率最高,"中等"以上日数占60.3%,说明石家庄属于紫外线辐射较强的地区。春夏两季紫外线辐射最强,秋季次之,冬季最弱。紫外线辐射具有明显的日变化特征,呈向下开口的单峰抛物线状分布。通过相关分析法确定了影响紫外线辐射的主要气象因子,并运用多元回归方法建立了不同季节紫外线指数预报方程。检验发现4个方程对各季节预报效果良好,各季预报准确率均超过50%,其中秋冬季最好,预报准确率高达70%以上,可以用作日常紫外线预报业务。
Using the ultraviolet ray monitoring data from 2006 to 2008 in Shijiazhuang, the characteristics of the ultraviolet radiation in the past three years are analyzed. The results show that the UV levels of Shijiazhuang ranged from Level 1 to Level 4, corresponding to 175, 251, 220, and 432 for the number of days, respectively. The relatively high level occurred most frequently, and the moderate level and higher accounted for 60.3%, which means that Shijiazhuang is an area with relatively highlevel ultraviolet radiation. The ultraviolet radiation was the strongest in spring and summer and the weakest in winter. The diurnal cycle of the ultraviolet radiation was very obvious, with a singlepeak distribution. The main meteorological factors that affect ultraviolet radiation are determined through correlation analysis. The ultraviolet index forecast equation containing a number of weather factors is established by using the multiple regression method. The accuracy rate of the equations for various seasons was above 50%, with the best accuracy rate being over 70% for autumn and winter. The equations could be used in operational ultraviolet index forecasting.
出处
《气象科技》
北大核心
2011年第6期731-735,共5页
Meteorological Science and Technology
关键词
紫外线指数
预报方法
多元回归
ultraviolet index prediction method multiple regression
