摘要
运用二阶KLEM(即资本、劳动、能源、原料)投入产出结构分解法,本文将汽油、煤油、柴油和燃料油的需求增长分解为各种驱动因素的加权平均贡献之和。研究结果表明:1997-2007年,导致全社会四种成品油需求增长10 200万吨的正向驱动因素及其贡献率,为国内最终需求因素(165.9%)、国内中间需求因素(28.3%)和出口贸易因素(94.5%),负向驱动因素为技术进步因素(-178.6%)和进口替代因素(-10.0%)。
In this paper,input-output structural decomposition analysis incorporating a two-tier KLEM（i.e.,Capital,Labor,Energy,Material） production function framework is used to decompose the refined oil demand in China into the weighted contribution from different kinds of driving factors.The refined oil includes gasoline,kerosene,diesel oil and fuel oil.The results show that the total demand of four kinds of refined oil products in China experienced an increase of 102 million tons from 1997 to 2007.The positive driving factors are final demand（average contribution,165.9%）,intermediate demand（28.3%） and export（94.5%）,the negative driving factors are technological progress（-178.6%） and import substitution（-10.0%）.
出处
《商业研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第11期46-51,共6页
Commercial Research
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目<美
日等西方国家新能源政策跟踪及我国低碳经济研究>
项目编号:ZD050
关键词
成品油消费
KLEM
投入产出结构分解法
驱动因素
refined oil demand
KLEM
input-output structural decomposition analysis
driving factors
