摘要
根据1990—2009年我国的出口额、最终消费支出额、固定资产投资额、外国各国国内生产总值以及人民币对美元实际有效汇率的数据,利用单位根检验、协整分析、格兰杰检验和建立误差修正模型等方法,就内需对我国出口贸易的影响进行实证研究和度量并得出结论:内需扩大总体上对我国出口贸易的发展具有显著的促进作用,而内需中的消费和投资对出口贸易有着不同的影响,消费需求的扩大对我国出口贸易的促进作用不及投资大。就此提出相关政策建议。
Empirical study and measurement of the impact of domestic demand on export trade in China is conducted according to the data of export amount, final consumption expenditure amount, fixed asset investment amount of China, the GDP summation of various foreign countries, and the actual valid exchange rate of Renminbi to dollar from 1990 to 2009. Applied are the unit root test, the co-integration analysis, the Granger test, and the error correction model. It is concluded that the expanding of domestic demand has remarkable promoting effect on the development of export trade in China, the consumption and investment in domestic demand have different influences on export trade, and the promoting effect on export trade in China of expanding consumption demand is smaller than investment. Corresponding policy suggestions are brought forward according to it.
出处
《沈阳工业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2011年第4期328-333,共6页
Journal of Shenyang University of Technology(Social Sciences)
基金
沈阳市社会科学基金项目(sysk2010-02-05)
关键词
内需
消费
投资
出口贸易
单位根检验
协整分析
格兰杰因果检验
实证研究
domestic demand
consumption
investment
export trade
unit root test
cointegration analysis
Granger test
empirical study
