摘要
笔者在运用索洛余值法对我国各地区全要素生产率进行估算的基础上,利用非参数的核密度函数法和马尔可夫链法对全要素生产率地区差异的动态演进进行了分析。研究结果表明,我国各地区全要素生产率差异较大,从东部往西部呈现逐渐降低的梯度分布格局;各地区之间全要素生产率的绝对差距在20世纪80年代呈现缩小趋势,而从1990年以后呈现加速扩大趋势;同时,核密度函数分布呈现"双峰"收敛趋势,进一步表明全要素生产率两极分化现象严重;从马尔可夫链的稳态分布来看,各地区的全要素生产率将继续保持较大差异,短期内难以实现均衡发展。
Based on an evaluation of the total factor productivity in each province of China with Solow surplus value method, the author made an analysis of the dynamic evolution of the regional differences in the total factor productivity with the nonparameter Kernel densi- ty function and Markov chain. The results show that the difference in the total factor productivity of different provinces of our country is great, and it presents a gradient distribution situation of gradual decrease from the east to the west ; the absolute disparity between dif- ferent regions displayed a shrinking trend in the 1980s, and it has been ascending since 1990s; meanwhile, the distribution of the Ker- nel density function displayed a ＂twin peaks ＂convergence trend, which further showed a severe polarization of total factor productivity ; from the steady distribution of Markov chain, the total factor productivity of each region will continue to show great discrepancy and it is hard to realize balanced development in a short term.
出处
《经济经纬》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第6期37-41,共5页
Economic Survey
关键词
全要素生产率
地区差异
核密度估计
马尔可夫链
total factor productivity
regional disparity
Kernel density estimation
Markov chain
