摘要
能源定价体制的改革是我国未来经济体制改革中一项非常重要、又极其紧迫的重大理论和实践课题,这一改革不但直接关系到我国经济增长和能源效率的提高效果,更是关乎我国经济发展转型的成败和我国未来能源安全的保障状况。本文通过建立CGE模型,研究了能源价格上涨情景下我国能源消费与经济增长的综合波动特征。主要发现如下:能源价格上涨虽然使得除进口外GDP、出口、就业等下降,物价水平上涨,但却能够在一定程度上降低能源强度并优化产业结构。就影响的大小而言,电力价格上涨的影响最大,石油和天然气次之,煤炭价格上涨的影响最小。从行业产出的变动来看,能源行业自身受能源价格上涨的负面冲击最大,其次是重工业,而农业、轻工业等所受的负面冲击最小。基于上述结论,我们认为,未来继续努力推进能源定价的市场化改革,是推进我国的节能降耗工作、提高经济增长效率的有效途径。
The marketable reform of energy pricing is a very important and pressing project in Chinese economic system reform in the future,this does not only directly affected the efficiency improvement of economic growth and energy consumption,but is also closely correlated with the economic transition and the situation of energy security.With constructing computable general equilibrium model（CGE）,we investigate the synthetical characteristics of energy consumption and economic fluctuation in the scenes of energy price rising in China.The main findings are as follows： Though the rising of energy price has adverse effects on GDP,export,employment and so on（except import）,and the price level rises accordingly,but it also can reduce the energy intensity and optimize the industry structure on some extent.As to the extent of influence,the influence of electricity price rising is the maximal,petroleum and gas is the less,and the influence of coal price rising is the minimum.For the output of different industries,the adverse impacts of energy price rising on energy industry itself is the maximal,that impacts on heavy industry is the less,and that impacts on agriculture,light industry and so on are the least.Based on the results,we consider that the marketable reform of energy pricing is an effective route to promote energy saving and improve the efficiency of economic growth in China.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第9期57-65,共9页
Statistical Research
基金
国家社科基金资助项目(07BJY065)
教育部哲学社会规划项目"中国电力价格体制改革研究"(09YJA790006)的阶段性研究成果
