摘要
采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法统计分析黑河流域中、西部水系气温、降水及出山径流序列变化特征,并初步讨论了降水、径流发生变化的可能原因.黑河流域中、西部水系气温在20世纪60-70年代总体表现为下降趋势,80年代气温开始波动升高,气温显著升高则主要发生在2000年以来.研究区山区年降水量大于平原的,各站年降水量均呈现平、枯、丰交替的特点,总体上呈微弱增加趋势,增幅不显著.出山径流量在年代尺度上呈现缓慢下降的趋势,洪水和丰乐两条河流的年出山径流量存在突变点,位于1960前后.2000年前后,三河径流量微弱上扬后,继续开始减少趋势,讨赖河稍迟于其余2条较小的河流.
The nonparametric statistic method of Mann-Kendall was adopted to analyze the trend and char-acteristic changes in air temperature,precipitation and mountain runoff in the middle and western reaches of Heihe river basin,based on which,possible reasons for the hydrometerological changes in the study area were also discussed.Mann-Kendall statistics resulted in an overall decline of air temperature from 1960-1970 and an obvious increase after that.Especially,the upgoing trend of air temperature turned to be stronger and faster after the year 2000.As for precipitation,it was always more in the mountain area than in the northern plain.Data series from all weather stations featured a normal-dry-wet periodic characteristic for the annual total precipitation and a non significant overall upgoing trend over the past 50 years.Inversely,the mountain runoff were keeping declining at the time scale of decades and it was found that the mountain runoff changed in the year of 1960 except for the Taolai river in the study area.There was also a small increase in the discharge of the selected three rivers but immediately it was turned into a downtrend around the year 2000.This trend for the Taolai river occurred a somewhat later than the other two rivers.
出处
《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第4期7-12,共6页
Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2009CB421306)
国家创新研究群体科学基金项目(41021091)
