摘要
根据阜康市气象站1971-2009年平均气温、降水量资料,运用线性趋势估计、小波分析、距平与累积距平、滑动t检验等方法,对阜康绿洲年平均气温和降水量变化趋势、周期特征、突变特征进行分析。结果表明：（1）1971-2009年,阜康年平均气温和降水量均呈波动式上升;年平均气温以0.44℃/10a的线性倾向率上升,其相关系数为0.61,通过了0.01显著性检验。年降水量以14.04 mm/10a的倾向率增加,其相关系数为0.26,通过了0.10显著性检验。（2）气温序列存在7 a和18 a的准周期;降水序列存在5 a和18 a的准周期;在不同的时间尺度上,气温和降水经历了多个偏暖（多）期和偏冷（少）期,在未来几年可能会迎来一个偏暖期;降水在未来几年将由偏少期向偏多期转变。（3）气温和降水量累积距平曲线的变化趋势显示,绿洲气温和降水量分别存在1983、1997年突变年份;突变各时间段的变化趋势都通过了α=0.10的显著性检验,趋势性明显。
The trend,period and abrupt change of annual temperature and precipitation in Fukang oasis were analyzed with methods of linear analysis,annual anomalies,moving t test and wavelet analysis.The results indicate that：（1） The annual temperature and precipitation trend is in decrease in nearly 40 years.The average temperature trend is 0.44℃/10a and the correlation coefficient is 0.61.The average precipitation trend is 14.04 mm/10a and the correlation coefficient is 0.26.（2） There is an obvious periodic of 7 and 18 years for the annual temperature series during nearly 40 years.At the scale of 7 years,there are 8 high frequency periods and 9 latent periods for the annual temperature series;At the scale of 18 years,there are 4 high frequency periods and 4 latent periods for annual temperature series.There is an obvious periodic of 5 and 18 years for the annual precipitation series during nearly 40 year.At the scale of 5 years,there are 13 high frequency periods and 14 latent periods for the annual precipitation series;At the scale of 18 years,there are 1 high frequency periods and 2 latent periods for the annual precipitation series.The wavelet analysis indicates that the annual temperature will keep an increasing trend in the coming years,while the annual precipitation may show a decreasing change in the coming years.（3） The trend of annual anomalies shows that the annual temperature and precipitation changes in 1983 and 1997,which passed the significance test at 0.10 level.The study on climate change may provide a basis for ecological monitoring,climate projections and agricultural development in Fukang oasis.
出处
《干旱地区农业研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第4期257-262,共6页
Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas
基金
新疆维吾尔自治区草地资源与生态实验室
新疆维吾尔自治区发改委生态科技工程(0742141)
关键词
气候
小波分析
突变特征
滑动t检验
阜康绿洲
air temperature and precipitation
wavelet analysis
abrupt change
moving t test
Fukang oasis
