摘要
随着城市化进程加快、人口数量快速增加及人民生活水平普遍提高,城市生活垃圾管理已成为世界各国,特别是发展中国家城市面临的主要挑战。作为中国东北最大的中心城市,沈阳正面临城市生活垃圾产生量急剧增加的现状。文章通过对沈阳市城市生活垃圾排放现状的分析,发现2002年后沈阳市生活垃圾产生量和清运量逐年增加,生活垃圾成分变化显著。目前沈阳生活垃圾主要以厨余等有机废弃物为主,无机物成分比例下降,可回收废弃物特别是塑料类比例迅速上升。文章在现状分析基础上,对影响沈阳市城市生活垃圾产生量的7个主要内在因素进行斜率灰色关联度分析,利用GM(1,1)和多元线性回归相结合建立预测模型,对未来城市生活垃圾产生量进行预测,结果显示2020年沈阳市生活垃圾产生量将达1225.1万t。
Due to rapid urbanization,sharply increasing population and improved living standards,municipal solid waste（MSW）management is a major challenge in urban areas in the whole world,especially in the cities of developing countries.Shenyang,the biggest central city in Northeast China,is facing a great amount of increasing MSW.Analysis of MSW generation in Shenyang from 1995 to 2007 indicated that total amount of MSW has continuously increased since 2002 and MSW composition is changed significantly.Main components of MSW include organic waste（kitchen leftover）,inorganic waste（with a trend of decreasing）and recyclable waste such as plastic waste.Based upon an analysis of current situation,a slope grey correlation degree analysis was done through identifying 7 major internal factors influencing MSW generation,and then develops a prediction model by combing GM（1,1）method and multivariate linear regression（MLR）method.The finding shows that MSW generation in 2020 will reach to 12.251 million tons.
出处
《环境科学与技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第9期105-110,134,共7页
Environmental Science & Technology
基金
国家重点自然基金项目(71033004)
沈阳市科技计划项目(1091147-9-00)
辽宁省自然科学基金项目(20092078)
关键词
生活垃圾
斜率灰色关联度分析
预测
GM(1
1)
多元线性回归
municipal solid waste（MSW）
slope grey correlation degree analysis
forecast
GM（1
1）
multivariate linear regression（MLR）
