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基于时变故障率与服务恢复时间模型的配电系统可靠性评估 被引量:24

Reliability Evaluation of Distribution Systems Based on Time-varying Failure Rate and Service Restoration Time Model
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摘要 为考察运行环境与故障后服务恢复策略对配电系统供电可靠性的影响,依据这2个因素提出配电系统可靠性的评估算法,以更为细致和全面地刻画配电系统的供电水平与运行风险。首先,针对元器件停运概率依其运行工况(外部天气环境、内部老化情况、定期检修等)变化而时变的特征,建立元件的时变故障率模型;然后,根据负荷点的服务恢复时间依其本身的用电需求等级、恢复过程的次序及相关动作而改变的特征,建立负荷点的服务恢复时间模型;最后,依据上述模型,采用随机稀疏技术模拟配电系统元件的故障过程,并基于服务恢复时间模型和故障遍历算法确立配电系统可靠性评定算法。应用所提出的模型和算法对实际工程系统进行可靠性评估,并与经典的网络等值算法结果对比,算例表明该模型能更好地反映系统的实际运行情况,证实了模型具有较强的理论价值和工程实用性。 In order to study the impact of operation condition and service restoration after fault on the reliability of distribution system, a reliability evaluation algorithm was proposed. First, a time-varying failure rate model, was introduced, as some elements' outage probability varies with their operation condition such as the external weather and internal aging conditions. Then, according to the feature that load service restoration time depends on the load's service restoration sequence and the series of following actions, a system reconfiguring model after failures as well as a general service restoration time model were proposed. At last, simulating the elements' failure progress with sparse technology and calculating the loads' outage time with service restoration time model, we designed the distribution reliability evaluation algorithm based on above models and the fault-spreading-method. With the models and algorithm applied to evaluating an actual distribution system, results show that the proposed models and algorithm have an obvious advantage in theory value and they are feasible and practical.
出处 《中国电机工程学报》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2011年第28期57-64,共8页 Proceedings of the CSEE
基金 国家自然科学基金项目(70771111 60904065 71031007) 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(200943071220001)~~
关键词 配电系统 可靠性评估 时变故障率 服务恢复 稀疏技术 distribution system reliability evaluation time-varying failure rate service restoration sparse technology
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