摘要
目的分析云南省2005-2009年15岁以下儿童传染病死亡情况,为传染病防制工作提供决策依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法,对云南省2005-2009年15岁以下儿童传染病死亡资料进行分析;采用灰色模型[GM(1,1)],预测2010-2012年儿童传染病死亡率。结果 2005-2009年云南省15岁以下儿童因传染病死亡452例,0～4岁儿童死亡数居前3位的病种依次为:新生儿破伤风、乙脑、艾滋病;5～14岁儿童死亡数居前3位的病种依次为:狂犬病、乙脑、艾滋病。死亡主要发生在7-8月。采用灰色模型[GM(1,1)]预测2010-2012年15岁以下儿童传染病死亡率分别为0.970 5/10万,1.006 9/10万,1.055 1/10万。结论新生儿破伤风、乙脑、艾滋病严重威胁云南省15岁以下儿童的生命健康,必须加大防治力度;重点关注贫困地区和少数民族地区儿童传染病死亡;GM对云南省15岁以下儿童传染病死亡率的拟合效果较好,可以应用于预测。
Objective To study the death situation of below 15 years old children in Yunnan province from 2005 to 2009 for control and prevention of infectious disease. Methods Descriptive epidemiology was used to analyze the reported data on the death situation of below 15 years old children ; the death rate was predicted by GM. Results The total death number of infectious diseases was 452 cases below 15 years old, the top three infectious diseases of 0-4 years old were neonatal tetanus, epidemic encephalitis B and AIDS. The top three infectious diseases of 5-14 years old were rabies, epidemic encephalitis B and AIDS. The high death time was mainly from July to August. According to GM, the forecast mortality of below 15 years old were 0. 970 5, 1. 006,9, 1. 055 1 （/100 000） from 2010 to 2012. Conclusion In Yunnan province, neonatal tetanus, epidemic encephalitis B and AIDS threaten the life and health of children below 15 years old severely. It must be prevented and controlled. Efforts should be focus on the child death of infectious disease in the poor and national minority area. GM could be used to predict the death rate of infectious diseases below 15 years old children in Yunnan province.
出处
《中国学校卫生》
CAS
北大核心
2011年第8期980-982,共3页
Chinese Journal of School Health
关键词
传染病
死亡
流行病学研究
儿童
Communicable diseases Death Epidemiologic studies Child
