摘要
通过对农产品价格波动特征及其原因的分析,得知:我国农产品价格波动的总体特征是由改革开放之前的平缓趋于改革开放之后的大起大落,而且投资是导致农产品价格波动关键、持久的作用因素;投资主要通过对农业原料的需求、推动农资成本的上涨并且对农业生产要素的占用三个渠道作用于农产品价格波动。最后通过Granger因果检验和脉冲反应模型对传导机制进行了检验,验证了投资波动确会引起农产品价格的同步波动。
The analysis of the characteristics and causes of the agricultural product price fluctuation has indicated that the general characteristics of China＇s agricultural products price fluctuation is its mildness before the reform and sharp fluctuation after the reform,and that investment is the crucial and lasting influencing factor,which mainly has three channels：the demands on the agricultural raw materials,the rise of the agricultural production means and the occupation of the agricultural production factors.Together,those channels affect the agricultural product price fluctuation.In the end,the thesis has verified the transmission mechanism by the Granger causality test and the model of Pulse Response.
出处
《厦门理工学院学报》
2011年第3期90-94,99,共6页
Journal of Xiamen University of Technology
关键词
投资
农产品
价格波动
传导机制
GRANGER因果检验
脉冲反应模型
investment
agricultural product
price fluctuation
transmission mechanism
Granger causality test
pulse response model
