摘要
选取2005年9月至2018年8月中国经济政策不确定性指数和昆明国际花卉拍卖中心鲜切花拍卖价格,采用TVP-VAR模型,实证分析经济政策不确定性波动对鲜切花拍卖价格的影响。结果表明:鲜切花拍卖价格受到经济政策不确定性的冲击,不同品类的花卉受到的冲击波动相似,但起伏波动不同。鲜切花拍卖价格受到的冲击和持续时间与不同类型的经济不确定时间相关。全球金融危机与欧洲债务危机对鲜切花拍卖价格产生的冲击时间持久,原因是它们属于经济事件;而"一带一路"国际高峰论坛属于政策事件,对鲜切花拍卖价格产生的冲击时间较短。经济政策不确定性对鲜切花拍卖价格的冲击影响在不同的滞后期表现不同,呈现出随着滞后期数增大,影响程度也扩大的趋势。
Based on the data of economic policy uncertainty( EPU) of China and price of fresh cut flowers of Kunming International Flora Auction Trading Centerfrom September 2005 to August 2018,the TVP-VAR model is used to analyze the influence of the EPU on the auction price of fresh cutflower. The results show that: The auction price of fresh cut flowers is impacted by the EPU,and the impact to different types of fresh cutflowers is similar,with different intensity. The impact suffered by the auction price of fresh cut flowers and duration are related to the time of EPU of different types. The impact of global financial crisis and European Debt Crisis on the auction price of fresh cut flowers lasts long because they belong to economic events;on the contrary,the"Belt and Road"Forum belongs to political event and its impact on the auction price of fresh cut flowers does not last long. The impact of EPU on the auction price is different in different lag periods,the degree of impact is increasing with the increase of lag periods.
作者
彭春芽
彭世广
PENG Chun-ya;PENG Shi-guang(Faculty of Management and Economics, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China;College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China)
出处
《科技与经济》
2019年第3期41-45,共5页
Science & Technology and Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金项目——“基于拍卖市场的鲜活农产品供应链协调优化与应用研究”(项目编号:71162019
项目负责人:秦开大)成果之一
国家自然科学基金项目——“小参与者对鲜活农产品拍卖市场价格波动的影响机理及相关机制研究”(项目编号:71062006
项目负责人:秦开大)成果之一
