摘要
对我国1995年至2009年工业化、城镇化和农业现代化动态关系进行的研究表明,三者之间存在长期的协整关系。农业现代化与工业化、城镇化呈反向变动趋势;工业化和城镇化不是农业现代化的格兰杰(G ranger)原因,而农业现代化是工业化和城镇化的格兰杰原因;长期均衡对农业现代化水平调整的幅度较小;工业化和城镇化发展对农业现代化的冲击总体上并不显著。
Based on relevant data from the year 1995 to 2009, this article is aimed at making an empirical study on the relations between industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in China. This article is concluded that there is a reverse trend between agricultural modernization and the other two, that agricultural modernization is the granger cause of industrialization and urbanization, hut reverse causality is refused, that long - term relation acts on agricultural modernization slightly, and that industrialization and urbanization have a weak direct impact on agricultural modernization.
出处
《城市问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第9期21-25,共5页
Urban Problems
关键词
工业化
城镇化
农业现代化
协整检验
industrialization
urbanization
agricultural modernization
co- integration test
