摘要
以长三角地区上海、江苏和浙江3省市为研究对象,运用Johansen协整检验、向量误差修正模型(VEC)和Granger因果检验等方法分析能源消费与经济发展的相互关系,并利用LMDI方法对3省市1995～2007年的能源强度进行分解分析,得到能源消费与区域发展关系的影响因素。结果表明:近年来长三角能源消费形势严峻,并较多地受到产业结构调整的影响。上海和江苏的能源消费在一定程度上拉动了经济发展,但是随着产业结构的调整,上海工业结构的调整促进了能源强度降低,而江苏却正好相反。近年来,浙江省的经济发展对能源消费的影响比较显著,随着该省工业规模扩大,能源强度有所升高,但是其产业结构的调整有利于降低能源强度。
Energy consumption contributes to the emission of greenhouse gases,which is arguably responsible for the global warming.As one of the most developed regions in China,the Yangtze River Delta is both a cause and victim of global and regional climate change.The understanding of the relationship between energy consumption and economic development in the Yangtze River Delta would help local governments to designate effective strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change and to enhance their adaptation capabilities to climate change.This study applied Johansen integration test,VEC model and Granger Causality Test to uncover the relationship between energy consumption and regional development in the Yangtze River Delta.The logarithmic mean Divisia index techniques（LMDI） was used to decompose changes in energy intensity to identify the key factors that influence the relationship between energy consumption and regional development.Some interesting differences in the relationship between energy consumption and economic development among Shanghai,Jiangsu and Zhejiang were found in this study.In Shanghai and Jiangsu,energy consumption resulted in economic growth,although in Jiangsu,this influence was not so significant.But in the Zhejiang province,economic growth led to more energy consumption.The decomposition analysis indicated that the scale of industry and industrial structure affected both economic growth and energy consumption.
出处
《长江流域资源与环境》
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第7期886-891,共6页
Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
基金
国家自然科学基金委员会理科人才基地项目(J0730534),国家自然科学基金项目(No.40830747)
关键词
长三角
能源消费
区域发展
产业结构
Yangtze River Delta
energy consumption
regional development
industrial structure
