摘要
论文在对1988至2008年期间北京市三次产业取水结构及其用水效率变化进行了定量分析,在此基础上分别计算了由技术进步导致的三次产业取水节水量和由产业结构调整导致的取水节水量;建立了北京市地区万元增加值取水量-人均GDP负幂指数经验模型,以及产业结构调整导致的取水节水量的线性回归模型。研究结果表明,积极发展第三产业并提高其用水效率可有效促进产业节水,应进一步提高对需求侧节水管理的重视,充分挖掘第三产业的节水潜力。
This paper gives an account of the dynamic changing process of the water withdrawal structure and the industrial water-use efficiency in Beijing during the years from 1988 to 2008.In this period,the water withdrawal structure of the three industries of Beijing changed from ＂1-2-3＂ type to ＂1-3-2＂ type in 2005,and is likely to change to ＂3-1-2＂ type in the next few years.Based on this,the macroscopic amount of water savings of three industries are calculated,which shows that the saved amount of industrial water withdrawal of Beijing caused by improving water-use efficiency of the tertiary industry amounted to 1.14 billion m3,which accounting for 38% of the total saved amount of industrial water withdrawal caused by improving water efficiency of three industries.And a multivariate regression model of the saved amount of water withdrawal caused by industrial structure upgrading is established,which explains that every 1% increase in the added value of the tertiary industry proportion,can save 0.344 billion m3 water.An empirical power exponent model of Beijing water withdrawal per ten thousand yuan GDP of industry-real GDP per capita,which shows that the period when the added value proportion of the tertiary industry increased from 40% to 70%,is the key period to vastly improve the water-use efficiency and the negative growth of water withdrawal of industries.The result reveals that the saved amount of industrial water withdrawal has been effectively elevated through actively developing tertiary industry and improving water-use efficiency.The author suggests that more attention should be paid to water-saving management,and the water-saving potential of the tertiary industry should be fully tapped.
出处
《自然资源学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第6期1040-1051,共12页
Journal of Natural Resources
基金
北京市水务局项目"北京市高校/商务中心节水评价指标体系研究"
关键词
北京市
第三产业
产业结构
产业取水量
Beijing
tertiary industry
industrial structure
water withdrawal of industry
