摘要
根据1995-2007年中国内地东、中、西部地区27个省、直辖市、自治区组成的面板数据,运用面板单位根、异质协整和因果检验等方法,重新检验了入境旅游与地区经济增长的关系。实证结果表明:东、中、西部地区的旅游外汇收入与GDP之间都存在长期均衡关系,且各截面入境旅游对经济增长都有正方向的作用。就整体效果而言,西部的弹性系数最大,东部次之,中部最小;从长期来看,经济增长是三大地区入境旅游发展的Granger原因,且具有强因果关系;就短期而言,西部地区的入境旅游与经济增长形成了反馈效应。
This paper applies the panel unit roots,heterogeneous cointegration and causality test techniques to re-investigate the relationship between inbound tourism and regional economic growth of 27 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in China for the 1995~2007 period.The result indicates that on the nationwide scale,there is a long-term equilibrium between foreign exchange earnings from tourism and local GDP in the east,central and west of China and that inbound tourism of each cross-section has a positive effect on its economic growth.Additionally,the elasticity of the west is the largest and that of the central region is the smallest,as viewed from the overall effect.Finally,economic growth is the Granger cause of inbound tourism development in all the three regions in the long term and the causality is strong while inbound tourism and economic growth in the west forms a short-term feedback effect.
出处
《旅游论坛》
CSSCI
2011年第2期54-58,共5页
Tourism Forum
基金
湖南省社科联课题"湘西州旅游产业转型与结构升级优化研究"(080316A)
关键词
入境旅游
经济增长
面板协整
面板因果
Inbound tourism
economic growth
panel cointegration
panel causality
