摘要
对水稻两迁害虫气象条件等级预报的研究,为水稻生产防虫减灾提供气象依据;通过对水稻两迁害虫发生资料与气象资料进行对比分析,考虑前期气象条件和虫源数,利用统计回归法建立预报模型。对水稻两迁害虫的气象条件等级预报进行研究,分长期和短期预报,将各因子和预报对象都划分为5级,用当地气象台发布的月、季度及1周的天气预报结论,综合分析前期虫源数是否有利,对未来月、季度和未来1～7天逐日影响水稻两迁害虫迁飞的气象条件等级进行预报。预报方法实用性强,逐日预报准确率达到了70%以上。水稻两迁害虫受气象条件的影响很大,通过对气象条件的等级预报进行研究,建立两迁害虫气象条件等级预报模型,在水稻生产中发挥了积极的作用。
The author studied on meteorological conditions grade forecast for two migration of rice insects,provided reasons for insect prevention and disaster reduction in rice production.By comparative analysis on the date of meteorological conditions and occurrences of two migration of rice insect in Guilin region,thinking of meteorological condition and injurious number in earlier days,the author used regression analysis method to forecast the grade of meteorological condition that affecting the two migration of rice insect.The system had contained long term and medium term forecast.Forecast factor and target had been divided as 5 grades in the work system.Using the mouth ＇ s and season ＇ s and week ＇ s weather forecast conclusion that local observatory had published,synthesize analysis the early days weather and injurious numbers condition,the author could forecast the weather condition grade that affecting the two migration of rice insect for next mouth,or next season or each day in future 1-7 days.This was a practical forecast work system,the forecast accuracy for each day was larger than 70%.Two migration of rice insects were seriously impacted by meteorological conditions.By studying on the meteorological condition grades forecast,the author could establish the meteorological condition grade forecast mode,and had positive function for manufacture practice.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第12期281-285,共5页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
广西桂林市科技局攻关项目(2009011405)
关键词
水稻两迁害虫
气象条件
等级预报
研究
two migration of rice insect
meteorological conditions
grade forecast
analysis
