摘要
目的探索自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)在狂犬病暴露监测中的应用,为控制狂犬病疫情提供科学依据。方法采用ARIMA模型对珠海市西部地区各级各类医疗机构狂犬病疫苗预防接种点2007-2009年所有狂犬病暴露监测数据进行逐月分析。结果模型ARIMA(0,0,0)(1,1,0)12能很好地拟合珠海市西部地区的狂犬病暴露曲线。根据预测结果,2010年珠海市西部地区狂犬病暴露曲线从5月份开始呈现上升趋势。结论自回归移动平均模型适用于对狂犬病暴露人数的预测,模型参数应随数据量增大而修正。
Objective To explore the application of autoregressive integrated moving average（ARIMA）model in rabies surveillance,and to provide scientific basis for prevention and control of hydrophobia.Methods The data of rabies surveillance during the period of 2007-2009 were collected through planned immunization sites from every medical institution of western region in Zhuhai city to conduct statistical analysis with ARIMA model.Results The ARIMA（0,0,0）（1,1,0）12 could be used as a good model fitting for the rabies exposure curve in the western region of Zhuhai city.According to forecast results,it showed an upward trend of the rabies exposure from May 2010.Conclusion Autoregressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model could be applied to predict the population exposed to rabies,and the parameters of this model should be modified with the increased amount of data.
出处
《中国预防医学杂志》
CAS
2011年第5期427-430,共4页
Chinese Preventive Medicine
