摘要
目的为中小学校流行性感冒监测体系提供合适的预警方法和预警界值,为科学防控流感提供参考依据。方法采用历史数据建立预警数据库,应用控制图法建立预警模型,确定流行标准,通过计算各候选预警界值预警的灵敏度、特异度、似然比和阳性预测值等指标,优选出合适的预警界值。结果医院流感样病例百分比(ILI%)、流感样病例缺勤数和流感暴发疫情监测数据均为非正态分布,三者呈正相关;学校流感样病例缺勤数的预警界,在第p80时灵敏度为100%,特异度为91.89%;流感暴发疫情的预警界值在第p75时灵敏度为100%,特异度为94.59%。结论流感样病例缺勤数合适的预警界值是p80,流感暴发疫情合适的预警界值是p75。
[ Objective ] To provide appropriate warning method and warning threshold for influenza surveillance system in primary and middle schools, and provide reference for scientific prevention and control of influenza.[Methods] Alert data were based on historical reports of infectious diseases. Control chart was used to establish early warning model. An epidemic definition was made. After calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio and positive predictive value, the optimal model and thresholds were ascertained. [Results] Data monitoring of ILI% in hospital, influenza like illness absenteeism number and influenza outbreak surveillance data were non-normal distribution, The three showed positive correlation. At the p80 percentile of alert threshold, the sensitivities of influenza like illness absenteeism was 100% ,and the specificities was 91.89%; At the p75 of alert threshold, the sensitivities of outbreak of influenza was 100%, and the specifieities was 94.59%. [Conclusion] The proper alert threshold for influenza like illness absenteeism was p80, for outbreak of influenza was p75.
出处
《职业与健康》
CAS
2015年第6期800-802,共3页
Occupation and Health
基金
深圳市科技计划项目(项目编号:201203174)
关键词
流感
控制图法
预警界值
Influenza
Control chart
Alert threshold
