摘要
欧元自启动以来,经历连续三年的贬值后开始升值;欧盟欠佳的经济表现、美国奉行强势美元政策和欧央行相当时期内的“不干预”,是欧元贬值的主要原因;欧元进入流通、欧美间利差以及欧央行与美联储所持的“善意的忽视”态度,促使欧元汇率超常升值。由于欧盟经济逊于美国将会持续一段时间,欧央行的干预并不以欧元升值为目标,强势美元政策仍是美国长期的对外战略等原因,未来欧元汇率走势将在目标区间内波动,但中心汇率总体上会不断下降。
The Euro has started to appreciate after three consecutive years＇ devaluation since it was launched. The reason of its devaluation is EU＇s poor economic performance, America＇s pursuance of strong-dollar policy and ECB＇s （European Central Bank） ＂non-intervention＂ policy in a considerably long time; what have caused the excessive appreciation of the Euro exchange rate are Euro＇s getting into circulation, the existence of interest rate swaps between EU and America and the ＂benign neglect＂ attitude held by the ECB and the Federal Reserve （US）. Because that UN economy will not be as strong as America＇s will last for some time, ECB＇s intervention doesn＇t target at the Euro＇s appreciation and America will take strong-dollar policy as a long-term foreign strategy, the Euro exchange rate trend in the future is that the rate will fluctuate in the target zone with the central rate continuously failing on the whole.
关键词
欧元
经济增长
货币政襄
欧洲央行
汇率
Euro
economic growth
monetary policy
ECB（European Central Bank）
exchange rate
