摘要
美国的经常项目逆差特别是贸易逆差“历史悠久”,尤其是近年来高速增长,已引起人们广泛的关注。1990年代来的美国贸易逆差,已很难单从汇率、贸易政策及产品竞争力等单个变量来加以解释。通过运用滞后一年的时间数列回归分析及相关分析,本文得出的结论是:当期美国贸易逆差是前期美国贸易逆差的惯性增长,并且只要美国能够维持强势美元,资本与金融账户的盈余足够冲抵贸易逆差,美国的贸易逆差便具有可持续性。在本文的最后一部分,作者针对近期美国人制造的“人民币升值论”,结合近10年来中美双边贸易现实,说明美国贸易逆差与人民币汇率之间没有必然联系,人民币升值不可能改善美国的贸易收支状况。
The US current account deficit,especially its trade deficit has a long history. The increase in the US current account deficit has raised wide concerns. The author of the paper is convinced that the US trade deficit since 1990s can hardly be explained in terms of exchange rate,trade policies and competitiveness of products. Making a statistical analysis,the paper concludes that the current trade deficit is being widened by growth inertial. The US trade deficit will be sustainable if America maintains the strength of the US dollar and the surplus from its capital and financial accounts can write of its trde deficit. In the last part of the paper,the writer analyzes the‘Appreciation of Renminbi′coined by Americans with bilateral trade between China and the US. The author points out there is no certain relationship between the US trade deficit and Renminbi exchange rate. The appreciation of renminbi cannot improve the US foreign trade.
出处
《广东经济管理学院学报》
2004年第5期10-15,共6页
Journal of Guangdong Institute of Business Administration
基金
广东金融学院重点课题(课题编号:XJ-04-09)
并得到资金资助
关键词
美国经济
美国国际收支
美国贸易收支逆差
美元汇率
American economy,American international revenue and expenditure,The US dollar exchange rate
