摘要
根据近十几年的月平均降水观测资料，对我国东部地区夏季降水的异常偏多和偏少的趋势进行了分析。发现自70年代后期以来，东部地区降水量及降水异常偏多事件有明显的上升趋势；同时异常偏少事件则略有下降，但不显著。说明我国近二十多年来洪涝灾害风险在增加，而干旱风险并没有以相同的强度下降。降水变化的这种特征与全球气温自70年代后期以来的加速变暖趋势是一致的。数值模式模拟结果也证明，随着温室效应的加强，我国东部降水增加，洪涝灾害风险也相应上升．
The relationship between the global warming and the severe summer rainfall over China is investigated using both the observed and simulated data. The rainfall over the eastern China increases significantly under the enhanced greenhouse condition, but the changes in the severe wet and severe dry events are not symmetry. When the summer rainfall over eastern China increases associating with the global warming,more severe wet events occur but no significantly less severe dry events likely to be expected. This implies that more floods will occur in China associating with the enhanced greenhouse effect, but in the same time, the risk of drought will not significantly decrease.Simulation results generally consist with the observations. But the magnitude of severe dry rainfall trend is stronger than that of severe wet rainfall trend in period 1977- 1998. These model results imply that the changes of the mean values may play more important role for the genesis of extreme events associated with the global warming in eastern China.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
1999年第3期30-37,共8页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家自然科学基金!49635190
中国博士后基金
