摘要
利用1961-1999年中国区域701个气象站气温观测资料,分析了20个全球气候模式(IPCCAR4)在中国区域地面气温的模拟能力;利用三因素统计方法,先确定各模式气温模拟的权重因子,最后对多模式做不等权重和等权重的集合模拟。在此基础上分析了A2,A1B,B1排放情景下未来时段(2011-2040年)中国区域的气温变化。结果表明:(1)全球模式对中国区域年平均气温的空间分布模拟较好,特别是在低纬地区及东部地区;但年平均气温演变趋势的模拟值较观测值偏差较大;(2)两种不同集合方法都可以模拟出中国区域的升温趋势,但不等权重集合效果略好于等权重集合;(3)2011-2040年,相对于1961-1990时段,多模式集合预估结果表明,3种温室气体排放情景下中国区域年平均气温的增幅均在1℃以上,其中华南地区的增幅最小,增幅<0.8℃,而西北和青藏高原南部地区增幅均在1℃以上。
Using the daily series of temperature observations at 701 meteorological stations of China in the period of 1961-1999,the simulated results of 20 global climate models（including BCCR_BCM2_0,CGCM3T47 etc.） at the same period are validated and analyzed;using three factor statistical methods the ensemble prediction results of multi-model are given,using the observation data in the period of 1991-1999,the ensemble results are tested and verified.The changes of annual mean temperature in the period of 2011-2040 under the emission scenarios of A2,A1B and B1 are analyzed,which are the predictive results of multi-model ensemble prediction.The analyzed results show that：（1） The global climate model can reproduce the regional spatial distribution of annual mean temperature in China,especially in the low latitude and eastern China.（2） At the factor of trend of annual mean temperature changing in reference period,there is obvious bias between the simulation and observation.（3） Testing the resemble result of multi-models in the period of 1991-1999,it can simulate the trend of temperature increasing,comparing with the observation,the result of different weighing ensemble predictions is better than the same weighing ensemble prediction.（4） In the period of 2011-2040,the increase of annual mean temperature in China which result from multi-model ensemble prediction is above 1 ℃,in the spatial distribution of annual mean temperature,under the emission scenarios of A2,A1B and B1,the increase in South China is the least,and its range is less than or equal 0.8 ℃;the northwest China region and south of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are the biggest,and its range is more than 1 ℃.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第2期363-370,共8页
Plateau Meteorology
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项经费项目"面向适应的不同稳定浓度下的气候变化情景"(GYHY200806010)
气候变化对中国粮食生产影响评价系统研究项目(GYHY200806008)
973"北方干旱化与人类适应"子项目(2006CB400505)共同资助
关键词
全球气候模式
模式不等权重集合
模式等权重集合
增温
Global climate model
Different weighing ensemble predictions of multi-model
Same weighing ensemble prediction of multi-model
Temperature increasing
