摘要
在世界液化天然气(LNG)市场蓬勃发展的背景下,长期以来仅靠管道出口天然气的俄罗斯也提出要加快发展LNG业务。这主要是基于:一是可实现天然气出口形式多元化,利用LNG开辟新的市场;二是尽快参与世界LNG市场竞争,逐步在LNG市场占有更多份额,确保俄罗斯重要天然气出口国的地位;三是克服部分地区因地理屏障和气候原因导致的不利于修建管道的障碍,加大对位于巴伦支海、喀拉海、伯朝拉海、萨哈林岛等的大陆架气田的开发力度。根据《2030年前俄罗斯天然气行业发展总纲要》(草案)的规划,到2030年,俄罗斯LNG产量将占俄天然气总产量的10.5%?11.8%,LNG出口量将占俄天然气出口总量的12.1%?18.7%;俄天然气产量将占世界总产量的23.4%?26.1%。未来中国是否进口俄罗斯LNG主要取决于俄LNG的价格水平;中俄两国已经确认从俄东部向中国供气380亿立方米/年的目标,俄计划在符拉迪沃斯托克建设LNG产能并不会影响中俄东线天然气项目合作。
With the global LNG market booming,Russia is now planning to speed up development of the liquefied natural gas(LNG)business,reducing its long-time exclusive reliance on pipelines.This change is driven by the following considerations.First,LNG diversifies the export transportation mode and opens up new markets.Second, Russia is looking forward to consolidating its position in the gas export market by participating in global LNG market competition as soon as possible and increasing its market share.Third,LNG avoids geographical and climate barriers to gas pipeline construction and prompts more intensive construction of gas fields on the Continental Shelf,in places like the Barents Sea,the Kara Sea,the Pechora Sea,and Sakhalin Island.According to the draft plan entitled Development of Russia’s natural gas industry by 2030,LNG production will account for 10.5%~11.8% of Russia’s total natural gas production,and LNG will account for 12.1%~18.7%of Russia’s total gas exports, making Russia’s natural gas production account for 23.4%~26.1%of world gas production.Whether China will import Russian LNG mainly depends on its price.China and Russia have already set a goal of providing China with 38 billion cubic meters of gas per year,and Russia’ s plan to build an LNG port in Vladivostok will not affect China-Russia cooperation on the East gas pipeline project.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2011年第3期43-47,105,共5页
International Petroleum Economics
