摘要
俄罗斯的《2030年前能源战略》虽然不具有法律约束效力,但可以作为政府能源政策的方向性文件来理解。该战略对石油产业的预测较保守。对西西伯利亚地区产量下降和东西伯利亚地区成为第二大产油区的预测,从地质学和现行政策的角度来看具有很大的实现的可能性。但该战略对天然气产业的预测过于乐观。考虑到页岩气革命和经济危机的影响,俄罗斯需要对包括定价和长期合同在内的以往的天然气贸易方式进行修正。该战略对油气未来的出口方向和与此相配套的管道和液化气工厂建设进行了预测,其中液化气工厂的建设还需要充分考虑到世界市场的变化。此外,在政府相关政策和引进国外先进技术的条件下,能源的有效利用,特别是伴生气的有效利用问题会得到解决。
Russian＇s Energy Strategy up to 2030 is not a legally binding document,but rather describes the direction of the development of Russia＇s energy sector.The prediction for the oil sector in the document is quite conservative.According to the strategy,oil production in West Siberia will decrease while it will increase significantly in East Siberia.From the geological perspective,this is a more or less realistic objective if the Russian government continues with the current policy.However,the prediction for the gas sector is too optimistic.Taking the unconventional gas revolution in the U.S.and the influence of the global economic recession into consideration,Russia should amend the past gas trade methods including gas-price-making principles and long-term contracts.The strategy also predicates the direction for future exports and related constructions of oil-gas pipelines and LNG plants,which should be considered according to changes of the global market.Meanwhile,under circumstances when the government adapts related policies and introduces foreign advanced technologies,the energy and associated gases in particular will be utilized effectively.
出处
《俄罗斯研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第3期53-70,共18页
Russian Studies
关键词
俄罗斯
能源战略
石油天然气
伴生气
Russia
Energy Strategy
Petroleum and Gas
Associated Gas
