摘要
运用基于客流性质的铁路客流预测方法对银川—宁东铁路运营初期(2016年)、近期(2023年)和远期(2038年)客流情况进行预测。采用四阶段法对不同性质客流进行生成预测、分布预测和不同交通方式分担预测,通过各种性质客流的叠加,进行总体客流分析,得到研究区域全天客流变化和高峰情况,以及有关客流预测的主要指标。基于客流性质的铁路客流预测方法在客流性质区分明显的情况下,能够具有较好的精确度。
Based on the forecast method of railway passenger flow based on passenger flow character,this paper forecasts the passenger flow status of Yinchuan-Ningdong railway during original operation period（2016）,short-term period（2023） and long-term period（2038）.By using the four-stage method,the generation forecast,distribution forecast and share forecast of different traffic mode were taken for passenger flow with different character.Through addition of passenger flow with different character,the paper carries on general passenger flow analysis,then achieves the all-day passenger flow change and rush-hour status of research zone,as well as the main indices of passenger flow forecast.The paper also points out the forecast method of railway passenger flow base on passenger flow character,could have better precision under the obvious division of passenger flow characters.
出处
《铁道运输与经济》
北大核心
2011年第3期87-90,共4页
Railway Transport and Economy
关键词
铁路
客流预测
四阶段法
Railway
Passenger Flow Forecast
Four-stage Method
