摘要
The vehicle survival pattern describes the process that the survival ratio of vehicles decreases with the growth of vehicle age. Vehicle average life span and vehicle scrappage intensity are the key features of vehicle survival patterns and are important for the projection of China's vehicle scrappage and ownership. In this study, we modeled the vehicle survival patterns of nine classifications of vehicles in China by employing the Weibull distribution, and obtained the vehicle survival ratio functions. It is estimated that the average life spans of private passenger vehicles, government and business vehicles, non-operating buses, heavy duty, medium duty and light duty trucks are 14.5, 13.1, 11.5, 12.8, 10.1, and 8 years, respectively. The scrappage intensities of these vehicles are similar. Average life spans of taxis, transit buses and non-transit operating buses are 5, 9, and 5.5 years with the pattern of mandatory scrappage. Vehicle scrappages in China are mainly regulated by the upper limits of vehicle distances traveled specified by the compulsory scrappage standards.
基金
Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China ("863" Project) (Grant No. 2008AA11A157)
