摘要
能源危机和环境污染问题日益严峻,所以对推广纯电动汽车的要求越来越迫切。为了对纯电动汽车的可持续性发展水平进行评估,找出纯电动汽车的优势和不足,本文使用生命周期可持续性评价方法对纯电动汽车和燃油汽车在环境、经济和社会维度的表现进行评估,通过证据推理方法对这3个维度的数据进行融合以得到综合的评估结果。结果表明纯电动汽车在环境影响方面有较大优势,燃油汽车在生命周期成本和社会影响方面略有优势,综合来看纯电动汽车的生命周期可持续性评价结果更好。此外还分析了行驶里程和电力结构变化、电池技术发展及政府节能减排政策变化对纯电动汽车可持续性发展的影响。最后提出促进纯电动汽车可持续发展的建议,如提高可再生能源发电比重、鼓励驱动电池技术的发展等。
Due to the increasingly serious problems caused by energy crisis and environmental pollution,it is more and more urgent to promote the popularization of Battery Electric Vehicles(BEV).In order to evaluate the sustainable development level of BEV and find out the advantages and disadvantages of BEV s development,Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment(LCSA)is applied to assess the performance of both BEV and Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles(ICEV)in the three dimensions of environment,economy and society.Then with the method of evidence reasoning,data of environmental impact,life cycle cost and social impact are integrated to get comprehensive assessment result.The result shows that BEV has a great advantage in terms of environmental impact,while ICEV has a slight advantage in terms of life cycle cost and social impact.And taken together,BEV is more sustainable than ICEV.In addition,the influence of some key factors,including driving range,power structure changing,battery technology developing and government s energy conservation and emission reduction policy changing,on BEV s sustainable development is analyzed.In the end,some suggestions about the sustainable development of BEV are put forward,such as improving the proportion of renewable energy in power generation and encouraging the development of battery technology.
作者
周谧
朱祖伟
Zhou Mi;Zhu Zuwei(School of Management,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China)
出处
《工业技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第10期75-84,共10页
Journal of Industrial Technological Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目"大数据环境下产品多维度全生命周期评价方法研究"(项目编号:71601060)
安徽省自然科学基金项目"基于关联指标的模糊多属性证据推理方法及应用研究"(项目编号:1508085QG148)
关键词
纯电动汽车
生命周期可持续性评价
环境影响
生命周期成本
社会影响
可再生能源
battery electric vehicle
life cycle sustainability assessment
environmental impact
life cycle cost
social impact
renewable energy
