摘要
本文运用1993年—2008年中国宏观经济数据分析了中小企业经营绩效与宏观经济波动的关系及其宏观影响因素。研究表明:中小企业经营绩效与宏观经济波动之间存在长期均衡关系且互为格兰杰原因;脉冲响应分析表明各宏观经济波动变量对中小企业经营绩效的影响有正有负,其中GDP受冲击会降低中小企业经营绩效;而在宏观经济影响因素研究中,中小企业经营绩效与CPI和货币供给量及贷款利率负相关,与GDP正相关;国民经济总体发展状况的变化对中小企业经营绩效的影响较大。
This paper analysed the relationship between the operating performance of SMEs and macroeconomic and its macroeconomic factors by adopting the macroeconomic data from 1993 to 2008.We found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the operating performance of SMEs and macroeconomic volatility,and they are Granger causes each other.Impulse response analysis showed that there are positive or negative effects on the operating performance of the SMEs after impulses to each macroeconomic volatility.What＇s more,the operating performance will reduce after impulse to GDP.The result of the Regression model showed that the operating performance of SMEs is negatively related to growth rate of the consumer price index（CPI） and currency supply and loan interest rate,and positively associated with the growth rate of GDP.The overall development of macroeconomic has a large effect on the operating performance of SMEs.
出处
《广西财经学院学报》
2011年第1期68-73,共6页
Journal of Guangxi University of Finance and Economics
