摘要
依据DLS模型模拟了未来情景下中国耕地面积及其空间分布特征,在此基础上,应用ESLP估算了栅格尺度上的耕地生产力水平,分析了不同农业生态区耕地生产力的空间分异特征.基于以上两个模型的估算结果,分析了2000—2020中国耕地用途转移对耕地生产力的影响,提炼了影响耕地生产力变化的主要因素.结果表明:在耕地生产力有较大增长空间的地域,提高单位面积耕地生产力比耕地用途转移对耕地生产力总量的影响显著;但对于耕地生产力增长空间较小的地域,耕地用途转移对耕地生产力总量的影响显著.要保障国家粮食安全,既要合理控制耕地转移,保证中国1.2×108hm2耕地红线,又要增加投入、提高管理水平,增加单位面积的粮食产量.
This paper simulated the spatial patterns of cultivated land in China under the future scenario by using the Dynamics of Land System （ DLS） model,and then estimated the cultivated land productivity at the grid pixel dimensions based on the Estimation System of Land Production （ ESLP） . In addition,the spatial patterns of cultivated land productivity in each of China agro-ecological zones were analyzed. On this basis,this paper predicted the impacts of cultivated land conversion on the cultivated land production in China in 2000-2020,and identified the major affecting factors on the cultivated land production. The research results indicated that the impact of improving the cultivated land productivity on the cultivated land production would be wunch more remarkable than that from the magnitude of cultivated land conversion in regions where there were high potential to imrprove the cultivated land productivity. However,in the regions with nearly no room to improve the productivity,cultivated land conversion would produce more apparent impacts on the total cultivated land production. In this sense,it was of significance for the national food security in China to adjust the cultivated land conversion to ensure the 0. 12 billion hm2 of cultivated land,and to increase investment and improve management level to increase per unit grain yield.
出处
《应用生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第12期3113-3119,共7页
Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70873118)
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2010CB950904)
科技部国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAC08B03
2008BAC43B01)
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-326-1)
亚洲开发银行技术援助项目(TA-7306(PRC))
农业部规划设计研究院2010年度自选科研项目资助
关键词
耕地用途转移
耕地生产力
未来情景分析
DLS模型
ESLP
cultivated land conversion
cultivated land productivity
future scenario analysis
DLS model
ESLP.
