摘要
目的探讨食源性健康风险评估中变异性和不确定性的定量描述策略。方法对变异性和不确定性分别用不同的概率分布来描述,用二维蒙特卡罗方法对变异性和不确定性作定量研究,并将结果与一维蒙特卡罗方法做对比。结果多重一维蒙特卡罗方法可以获得与二维蒙特卡罗方法相接近的结果。在参数不确定性的来源较多时,二维蒙特卡罗方法具有更高的执行效率。结论二维蒙特卡罗方法可以给出任意百分位风险取值的概率分布,可为风险管理者判定特定百分位的风险值是高于还是低于所关注的风险水平提供分析依据。
Objective This paper aimed to discuss strategies to quantitatively describe the variability and uncertainty in food-borne health risk.Methods The methodology were to use two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis to quantitatively characterize the variability and uncertainty described with different probability distributions,and compared the result with that obtained by one-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis.Results The simulation result indicated that although the multiple one-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations and two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis could yield the same result,the latter was more efficient when there were numerous sources of uncertainties.Conclusion In conclusion,the two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis can provide probability distribution of risk value at any percentile,which allows risk managers to determine the risk（above or below a risk level of concern）regarding to the level of certainty.
出处
《中国卫生统计》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第5期501-504,共4页
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
基金
国家科技支撑计划(2009BADB7B06)
中国农业科学院院长基金项目
