摘要
为了探讨兰州城区大气污染对居民呼吸系统疾病日住院人数的影响,收集2004年1月1日—2007年10月31日兰州城区每日空气污染指数(API)、气象(日均气压、气温、气湿、风速和降水量)资料,以及同时段的居民呼吸系统疾病住院数据,选用广义相加模型(GAM)的Poisson回归,利用非参数平滑函数控制长期趋势、星期效应、气象因素的基础上,研究大气污染对居民呼吸系统疾病日住院人数的影响,并按性别、年龄和呼吸系统疾病类型进行分层分析。结果表明,研究当日API上升1个四分位间距(48个单位)时,当日总的呼吸系统疾病住院人数增加5.50%(95%CI 4.03%～6.99%),并且这种影响具有一定的滞后效应。男性在API上升滞后第1d RR值最高,为1.058 3(95%CI1.039 7～1.077 2),女性则在API上升当日RR值最高,除滞后第3 d和第4 d,其他滞后各天RR值均低于男性。API上升对16～64岁人群的影响只在当日和滞后第1 d有意义,对≤15岁者和≥65岁者有显著的滞后效应,以滞后第5 d和第4 d RR值最高,分别为1.063 6(95%CI 1.043 4～1.084 1)和1.047 6(95%CI 1.017 6～1.0786)。API上升当日肺炎和上呼吸道感染(URTI)患者日住院人数增幅最大,RR分别为1.059 5(1.040 7～1.078 7)和1.056 0(1.030 6～1.082 1),肺炎患者日住院人数滞后效应高于URTI。研究表明,大气污染可增加居民呼吸系统疾病住院人数,并对不同性别、年龄和呼吸系统疾病类型的影响存在差异。
The paper is aimed at presenting our study of the effects of the ambient air pollution on the daily respiratory hospitalization in Lanzhou. The data on the air pollution index （API）, along with the relevant data on the meteorological changes and the hospitalization of the respiratory diseases sufferers are all collected based on the city government＇s bulletin from Jan. 1＇ 2004 to Oct.31＇ 2007 in the areas of City. We have also adopted a generalized additive model （GAM） for Poisson regression for analyzing the effect of ambient air on the daily hospitalization of respiratory disease patients among the city residents, in terms of gender, age and types of the respiratory disease, as well as their ways of using non-parametric smooth func- tions in controlling long-term trends, cyclical and meteorological factors. The results of our investigation indicate that, for every case of IQR （48 units） increase in daily API, there was a 5.50 （95%CI： 4.03%, 6.99%） increase in the respiratory disease admissions, which has brought a certain long-lasting effect. Statistics also shows that the Relevant Risk （RR） has reached its highest rate of 1.0583 （95% CI 1.039 7- 1.077 2） among the male residents one day after the lag effect, whereas that for female reached its highest when API increased. Except for the day 3 and day 4 after the lag effect, female residents tend to have lower RR level than males. As to the ambient air pollution, it is more likely for the city residents under 15-years- old and over 65-years-old to be affected whereas the RR level reached its highest 1.059 5 （1.040 7 - 1.078 7） and 1.056 0 （1.030 6- 1.082 1） at the third day and the fourth day after the lag effect, re- spectively. Immediate after the day, when API increased, a number of cases follow in hospitalization of pneumonia and upper respiratory tract infections （URTI）, with their RR levels going up to 1.059 5 （1.040 7- 1.078 7）and 1.056 0（1.030 6 - 1.082 1）respectively. And the lag effect on pneumo
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第5期212-216,共5页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家科技支撑计划项目(2007BAC03A10
2008BAC40804)
