摘要
使用Poisson回归和广义相加模型(GAM)相结合,通过比较不同温度下大气颗粒物质量浓度〔包括ρ(TSP)和ρ(PM10)〕与人群非意外死亡的关系,分析了北京市1998年1月—2000年6月ρ(TSP)和ρ(PM10)与温度对人群非意外死亡影响的交互作用.结果表明:温度越高,ρ(TSP)和ρ(PM10)与温度对人群非意外死亡影响的联合作用就越大.采用温度的P5和P95分位数将温度分为低、中、高温度层后,ρ(TSP)每增加10μg/m3,每日非意外死亡人数分别增加0.177%,0.052%和0.311%;ρ(PM10)每增加10μg/m3,每日非意外死亡人数分别增加0.090%,0.185%和0.568%.高温度层ρ(TSP)和ρ(PM10)对人群非意外死亡的影响高于中温度层,表明大气颗粒物质量浓度和高温对人群非意外死亡的影响有交互作用.
Poisson regression, combined with generalized additive models （GAM）, was used to examine whether there are interactive effects of particulate mass concentration, including TSP （total suspended particulates） and PM,0 （thoracic particulate matter）, and temperature on nonaccidental deaths for the period from 1 January 1998 to 30 June 2000 in Beijing, China. The results show that bigger associative effects on nonaccidental deaths exist between particulate matter and higher temperatures. A 10μg/m3 increase in p（TSP） was associated with an increase of 0.177%, 0.052% and 0.311% in non-accidental deaths at low, moderate, and high temperature layers respectively, which are stratified by the temperatures of 5th and 95th percentiles. A 10μg/m3 increase in p （PM10） was associated with an increase of 0.090 %, 0. 185 % and 0.568% in non-accidental deaths at low, moderate, and high temperature layers, respectively. The effect of p（TSP） and p（PM10 ） at the high temperature layer on non-accidental deaths is higher than that at the moderate temperature layer. The results of this study suggest that there are interactive effects of particulate matter and high temperature on non-accidental deaths.
出处
《环境科学研究》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第12期1403-1410,共8页
Research of Environmental Sciences
基金
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务专项(2007KYYW06)
关键词
交互作用
大气颗粒物
温度
非意外死亡
interactive effects
particulate matter
temperature
non-accidental death
