摘要
基于growth drag概念模型和有关研究,引入了水土资源对城市化水平发展的增长阻尼模型。对该模型修正后,以西安市为例,结合计量经济学原理对因水土资源的限制所导致的城市化发展水平的下降进行了计算和分析。结果发现,由于水资源的约束,城市化每年的速度要下降0.010875%。由于土地资源的约束,城市化每年的速度要下降0.004696%。总的增长阻尼大约是0.015571%,其中水资源的约束作用比较明显,这主要得益于西安市土地资源的增长,水土资源的集约利用以及资本弹性系数的下降。然而,从被利用资源随时间变化的趋势上看,西安市的增长阻尼数据在未来可能变大。
Based on the conceptual model of growth drag and some relevant researches,a growth drag model to water and land resources in the development of urbanization is introduced.By taking Xi＇an City as an example,the decline of levels due to restrictions of land and water resources is calculated and analyzed using the revised growth drag model and econometric theory.Results show that because of the constraints of water resources,urbanization rate may decline by 0.010875% annually.Because of the constraints of land resources,urbanization rate may decline by 0.004696% annually.Total growth drag is about 0.015571% and the role of water resources is greater.This is mainly due to the growth of land resources in Xi＇an City,the intensive use of land and water resources,and a decline in capital elasticity.In view of the trend of change about the use of resources over time,however,the damping data fo Xi＇an City may become greater in the future.
出处
《水土保持通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第5期221-225,共5页
Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation
关键词
增长阻尼
西安
城市化
经济增长
水土资源
growth drag
Xi＇an City
urbanization
economic growth
water and land resources
