摘要
粮食生产的根本在耕地,命脉在水利,水土资源的投入数量短缺及空间匹配错位在一定程度上限制了粮食产业的增长速度。文章基于沿黄九省2009-2018年的相关数据,将水资源、土地资源和水土匹配特征同时纳入增长阻尼模型,针对粮食产业机械化发展的特点选择以劳动生产率增长率和资源实际增长率分别衡量不受约束的资源增长率和受约束的资源增长率,利用岭回归测度沿黄九省水资源、土地资源及水土匹配特征对粮食生产的阻尼效应,并分析其时间演变特征和空间布局特征。研究结果表明:(1)由于粮食产业劳动力存在"农转非"的趋势,若以劳动力增长率衡量不受约束的资源增长率,会在一定程度上低估水土资源对粮食生产的约束作用,甚至得出水土资源对粮食生产不存在约束作用的结论。(2)研究期间内,沿黄九省水土资源对粮食生产的阻尼效应呈现波动特征,其中水资源阻尼系数波动较为平稳且小幅度下降,即水资源对粮食生产的约束作用一直存在但并不突出;土地资源阻尼系数在长时间下降后快速上升,且其近年来对粮食生产的限制最为显著;水土匹配阻尼系数近年来下降趋势明显且对粮食生产不再具有约束作用。(3)水资源和水土匹配阻尼效应的空间分布特征较为相似,高约束区均集中在沿黄九省的东部;土地资源阻尼效应较大的省份集中在沿黄九省的西南部,空间差异性明显。从各省份内部看,除河南、山东以及内蒙古水资源对粮食生产的阻尼效应最大外,其余省份土地资源对粮食生产的约束均大于水资源和水土匹配特征的约束。为了缓解沿黄九省粮食生产所受到的资源约束,一方面要严格落实年度水量分配计划,推进灌溉节水水利工程的建设,确保流域供水安全。另一方面要坚持最严格的耕地保护制度,强化耕地数量保护和质量提升,遏制耕地"非农化",�
The root of grain production lies in arable land and water conservancy.The shortage of water and soil resources input and the dislocation of spatial matching have limited the growth rate of the grain industry.Based on the relevant data of nine provinces along the Yellow River from 2009 to 2018,this paper incorporated the characteristics of water resources,land resources,and water-soil matching into the growth damping model,using the growth rate of labor productivity and the actual growth rate of resources to measure unconstrained resource growth rate and constrained resource growth rate according to the characteristics of the mechanized development of the grain industry.On this basis,this paper adopted ridge regression to measure the damping effect of water resources,land resources and water-soil matching in nine provinces along the Yellow River on grain production,and analyzed its temporal evolution characteristics and spatial layout characteristics.The research results showed that:(1)Because of the labor force transferring from agricultural sectors to non-agricultural sectors,if the unconstrained resource growth rate was measured by the labor force growth rate,the restraint effect of water and soil resources on grain production would be underestimated,even leading to conclusions that water and soil resources had no restrictive effect on grain production.(2)During the study period,the damping effect of water and soil resources in nine provinces along the Yellow River showed fluctuation characteristics.The damping coefficient of water resources fluctuated steadily and decreased slightly,that is,the restraining effect of water resources on grain production always existed but was not outstanding.The damping coefficient of land resources rose rapidly after a long period of decline,and its restriction on grain production appeared to be the most significant in recent years.The damping coefficient of water and soil matching declined significantly in recent years and no longer had a restrictive effect on grain productio
作者
华坚
盛晓涵
HUA Jian;SHENG Xiaohan(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing Jiangsu 211100,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第8期148-156,共9页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“绿色发展下我国水资源-能源-粮食协同发展与安全战略研究”(批准号:19ZDA084)。
关键词
沿黄九省
水土资源
粮食生产
阻尼效应
nine provinces along the Yellow River
water and soil resource
grain production
damping effect
