摘要
通过研究印度洋热带东传季节内振荡(MJO)活动和南海地区季节内振荡(ISO)活动的关系,发现MJO与南海ISO之间存在较稳定的高滞后相关,因此有可能利用春季和初夏MJO的活动来预测后期初、盛夏南海ISO的活动。通过对MJO活动与南海地区ISO活动物理关系的揭示,有可能以季节内振荡理论为基础,对夏季南海ISO活动提前15～50天进行预测。这样的预测试验在2008年取得了成功。这种建立在季节内振荡理论物理基础上的预测方法,较单纯的经验、统计预测有一定的进步,希望能为我国短期气候预测服务提供一种新的思路和理论依据。
The relationship between the east-propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation MJO across tropical Indian Ocean and the summertime South China Sea intra-seasonal oscillation is studied.The results show that there is a significant lag correlation between the two oscillations.This relationship is very important theoretically.With this method,the ISO activities over the South China Sea are shown to be predictable with the MJO of spring and early summer,15～50 days earlier than before.It was actually achieved in 2008.This approach,based on the theory of intra-seasonal oscillation,is more advanced than the traditional one,which just relies on pure experience and data.Thus,it enriches the service of short-term climate prediction in China with new supply of thought and theory.
出处
《热带气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第5期521-525,共5页
Journal of Tropical Meteorology
基金
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2004CB418302
2006CB403603)
国际科技合作项目(2007DFB20210)共同资助
