摘要
根据长江三角洲主要城市南京、上海和杭州的最高温度与最低温度资料,运用常规统计手段和Mann-Kendal突变检测方法,分析了3个城市的强高温过程,并对高温次数进行了描述性统计,同时,分析研究了3个城市高温发生次数的年际变化和季节变化,以及高温次数与夏季平均温度的关系,其结果可供验证全球气候变暖的数值模拟研究参考,同时有助于城市热浪预警预报业务的开展。
Based on daily high temperature and lower temperature data for Nanjing,Shanghai and Hangzhou stations at Yangtze River Delta,strong high-temperature process and the occurrence of extreme high temperature were analyzed and described,by normal statistics approaches and Mann-Kendal test.The interannual and seasonal variations of occurrence of extreme maximum temperatures above 35℃ at three cities were analyzed;meanwhile,the relationships between occurrence of selected maximum temperature（≥32℃ and ≥38℃） and the mean summer temperature was discussed.These results would give a reference to research of numerical simulation and the development of early warning and forecasting of heat wave.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第5期56-63,共8页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家科技支撑计划项目(2007BAC29B05)
江苏省社会发展面上项目(BS2007066)
中国气象局气象新技术推广项目(CMATG2006M15)
关键词
气候变化
高温灾害
趋势
climate change
high temperature disaster
trend
