摘要
本文将汇率弹性、外汇储备与消费、国内信贷纳入一个模型框架进行系统分析,旨在揭示汇率弹性、外汇储备持续积累与消费、国内信贷之间是否存在内生性的联动关系,以及这种联动关系在新兴市场经济体资本账户开放进程中的表现形式以及可能的变化。综合研究结果提示,伴随一国资本账户的逐步开放,汇率弹性增大、外汇储备的持续积累会直接刺激国内消费需求的上升;汇率升值对国内信贷呈现扩张性作用,而外汇储备积累与消费需求的增长会逆转信贷增长的趋势,表明目前的经济金融发展态势在某种程度上会自行熨平国内信贷的大幅波动;资本账户的有序开放完全可以作为宏观当局的一项重要政策工具,在与金融体制改革保持同步的状况下渐进实施资本项的开放不失为一方良策。
The variables such as the exchange rate flexibility,foreign exchange reserve and consumption,domestic credit are selected into an analytical framework. We try to analyze the endogenous interactive relationship between them and the possible form and change in the process of capital account liberalization in emerging market economies. The results show that with a gradual opening of capital accounts,the increase of exchange rate flexibility and the successive accumulation of foreign exchange reserve will directly stimulate domestic consumption demand. The currency appreciation will expand the domestic credit,while the growth of foreign exchange reserve and consumption demand will reverse the trend of credit expansion,which shows that the current economic and financial situation will smooth the volatility of domestic credit automatically in some extent. The sequence of capital account liberalization can be used as an important macroeconomic policy instrument. It will be a good policy rule preceding the gradual capital account liberalization while keeping pace with the financial system innovation.
出处
《金融评论》
2010年第5期82-93,共12页
Chinese Review of Financial Studies
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:70873041)
上海市哲学社会科学规划办一般项目(2008BJB028)
上海市教委科研创新项目的资助
关键词
汇率弹性
外汇储备
消费
国内信贷
资本账户开放
Exchange Rate Flexibility
Foreign Exchange Reserve
Consumption
Domestic Credit
Capital Account Liberalization
