摘要
本文选择40个主要国家和地区的经济数据建立门限面板模型,考察两次金融危机对宏观经济的影响,分析不同金融发展水平时外汇储备对出口、投资、消费和总产出的宏观经济效应。研究结果表明:金融危机对出口具有促进作用,对投资、消费和总产出具有消极影响;金融发展水平较低时,外汇储备对出口、消费和总产出具有积极影响;金融水平取得一定发展时,外汇储备对出口和投资具有消极影响,对消费具有积极影响;金融高度发展时,外汇储备对出口和消费具有积极影响,对总产出具有消极影响。
This paper chooses the economic data of 40 major countries and regions to establish threshold panel model to analyze the impact of both the financial crisis on macroeconomic and study the macroeconomic effects on exports, invest- ment, consumption and the total output by reserves in the different levels of financial development. The results show that the financial crisis has a role in promoting exports, but has a negative impact on investment, consumption and total out- put. At lower levels of financial development, foreign exchange reserves have positive impact on exports, consumption and the total output ; when financial development attains a certain level, the foreign exchange reserves have a negative impact on exports and investment, and have a positive impact on consumption; when the financial development level at- tains a certain height, foreign exchange reserves have a positive impact on exports and consumption, and have a negative impact on total output.
出处
《商业研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第5期85-92,共8页
Commercial Research
基金
教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目"货币地理学视角下的人民币亚洲化研究"
项目编号:12YJCGJW005
教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目"中国对东盟直接投资的质量评价及优化对策研究"
项目编号:13YJC790083
关键词
金融发展
外汇储备
门限效应
financial development
foreign exchange reserves
threshold effect
