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知情交易概率能够测度信息风险吗?——以并购公告前后的信息效应为例 被引量:4

Can Probability of Informed Trading Measure Information Risk?——On the Change of Information Asymmetry among M&A Announcement
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摘要 本文利用2004~2008年的86起并购重组事件考察了并购公告前后信息结构的变化。发现在并购公告之前,存在显著的信息泄漏。本文检验了并购公告前后知情交易概率(PIN)的变化,发现并购公告前的PIN低于并购公告后的PIN,从而表明PIN无法准确地反映信息不对称程度,因而PIN并不是衡量信息不对称的很好指标。另外,买卖价差在并购公告之前逐渐上升,并购公告之后逐渐下降,因此,买卖价差能够较好地反映信息结构的变化。 This article employs data for 86 M&A announcement events from 2004 to 2008 to test the change ot information structure among the M&A announcements. It shows that there is significant leakage of information before the M&A announcement. We test the changes of probability of informed trading (PIN) among the M&A announcement, and find that the PIN before the M&A announcement is larger than the PIN after the M&A announcement. Thus, it indicates that the PIN cannot capture the information asymmetry, and it is not a good indicator for information asymmetry. In addition, we find that the bid-ask spread continues increasing before the M&A an- nouncement and continues decreasing after the announcement. Therefore, the bid-ask spread can be a good measure to capture the changes of information structure.
出处 《经济管理》 CSSCI 北大核心 2010年第9期139-146,共8页 Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
关键词 知情交易概率 信息不对称 买卖价差 并购公告 probability of informed trading information asymmetry bid-ask spread M&A announcement
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