摘要
应用分形分布模型n=C/r^D的推广形式,即分段变维分形预测台风路径,方法简便易行。预测时不必考虑历史上出现过的相似路径,仅需根据某一台风的已知路径,建立2个独立的分段变维分形模型,1个代表已知路径的经度与时间的关系,另1个代表已知路径的纬度与时间的关系。根据这2个模型,即可分别独立地预测未来台风路径的经度与纬度。对8007号台风的预测获得了满意的结果。
By using the extended form of fractal distribution model N = C/rD, i.e., sectioned variable dimension fractals, this paper discusses the forecast of typhoon tracks. This method is simple and easy to be worked. As running the forecast, the similar tracks in the past is not needed to be considered. The only thing needs to do is to establish the two independent sectioned variahle dimension fractals models according to the given typhoon tracks, one model stands for the relationship between time and the longitude of typhoon tracks, another stands for the relationship between time and the latitude of typhoon tracks. According to these two models, the future longitude and latitude of typhoon tracks can be forecasted separately and independently. For No. 8007 typhoon, the forecast result is satisfactory.
出处
《中国海上油气（工程）》
1999年第1期36-39,共4页
China Offshore Oil and Gas
关键词
分形
变维分形
分段变维分形
台风
路径预测
fractals, variable dimension fractals, sectioned variable dimension fractals, typhoon tracks forecast
