摘要
供水管网运行状态的准确把握对供水管网的健康监测和健康诊断至关重要,而供水管网运行状态准确把握的关键则在于对用户流量的准确把握。本文提出了供水管网用户流量预测的两个方法,EMD分解与自回归模型相结合的方法和逐步回归方法与自回归模型相结合的方法,文中通过一实际供水管网中某用户流量的预测分析并与实际监测值的比较,验证了两个方法的有效性。研究使得城市供水管网健康的在线监测和在线诊断成为可能。
Accurate estimation of the operation status of a water distribution system is essential to health monitoring and diagnosis of the water distribution system,and the key to the estimation of the operation status depends on the accurate estimation of the user＇s demand.This study proposes two methods for the forecasting of the user＇s demand in the water distribution system,which are the combination of EMD method and AR model or the combination of progressive regression method and AR model.The effectiveness of the two methods is verified by the comparison of the forecasting of the user＇s demand in a real water distribution system with the monitoring data.This study makes it possible for the online health monitoring and diagnosis of a water distribution system.
出处
《地震工程与工程振动》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第4期126-131,共6页
Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(50678114)
关键词
供水管网
健康监测
健康诊断
用户流量
预测
EMD分解
逐步回归
自回归模型
water distribution system
health monitoring
health diagnosis
user＇s demand
forecasting
EMD method
progressive regression method
AR model
