摘要
在经典就业理论的分析基础上，结合中国实际情况，从宏观因素、财政政策、货币政策、结构性因素、人力资本和其他随机因素等六大方面提炼出可能影响就业的指标．分别选取指标的全国年度数据和季度数据，运用逐步回归方法提取出影响整体就业情况的长期短期因素．运用多元回归模型对年度指标进一步进行长期关系分析；采用VAR模型对季度数据进一步进行短期关系分析；并运用所建立模型进行了预测．
Basing on the classical theory of employment and combining with China＇s actual situation, this article extracts the indicators which affecting the employment of China from six aspects ,these are the macro factors, fiscal policy, monetary policy, structural factors, human capital, and other random factors . Selecting the national annual data and quarterly data of indicators then using stepwise regression method to extract the long-term and short-term influencing factors separately. Then using the multiple regression model to analyze the long- term relationship and using the VAR models to analyze the short-term relationship; finally predicted on the established models.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第15期47-56,共10页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
关键词
就业
影响因素
多元回归
VAR模型
employment
influencing factors
multiple regression
VAR model
