摘要
历史观察发现,尽管均衡汇率随着宏观经济变量不断变化,汇率制度的演变却是十分缓慢的。本文利用持续期模型研究布雷顿森林体系结束至2004年的跨国数据,发现固定汇率制度具有很强的惯性特征,一国退出固定汇率制度的概率随着时间的推移不断下降。进一步,这种效应对于发展中国家较之发达国家更强。因此,在经济转型过程中,即便灵活的浮动汇率制度具备更高的效率,长期存在的固定汇率安排也不会轻易被放弃。汇率制度改革同其他领域的制度改革一样,只是经济环境成熟还远远不够,更需要一些特别地契机。
Exchange rate regime is changing more slowly than equilibrium exchange rate.This paper uses the post Bretton Woods data to find that fixed exchange rate regime has the same path-dependent feature as other institution variables,that is,the exit ratio of fixed exchange rate regime is decreasing as time goes on.Furthermore,the path-dependence feature is more evident in the developing countries.Therefore,in the process of development,fixed exchange rate regime would be more preferred even if a float regime will be more effective.
出处
《南方经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第7期3-14,共12页
South China Journal of Economics
关键词
汇率制度
惯性
持续期分析
Exchange Rate Regime
Inertia
Duration Analysis
