摘要
文章以汇率超调模型及其拓展为基础,突出货币供求(Ms-Md)与宏观经济短期波动的总供求(AS-AD)关联运行的作用机理,结合非线性宏观金融理论在货币供需分析中引入可交易金融资产,在资本管制货币扩张下,对人民币名义汇率动态进行综合判断。在此基础上进行实证研究,突出指示器变量的作用,为人民币汇率动态提供经验支持。通过建立指示器指标之间的线性回归关系,在货币需求方程的协整分析基础上,反解出货币供求均衡条件下所形成与宏观经济总供求相合意的名义汇率,即把反映宏观经济总供求运行的均衡货币因素代入指示器指标之间OLS关系中,反解出均衡水平下的合意名义汇率,结果表明从自身而言,人民币不具备升值诉求。
This paper develops the model analysis based on the expanding overshooting model, puts aggregate supply and aggregate demand together with analysis of money supply and demand. With the help of introduction of tradable financial assets, the paper tries to build a new framework, and expand the policy space of exchange rate dynamics and its related. With the help of display target variables, through establishing the OLS relations, and inducing the monetary variable, which comes frnm the cointergration analysis, the paper gets the satisfacted nominal exchange rate and exchange rate misalignment. The resuits show that there is no appreciation pressure at the moment.
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
2012年第4期73-78,共6页
East China Economic Management
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(11YJC790097)
国家自然科学基金项目(70873087
71173151)
渤海财险科研基金资助项目(11BH10)
关键词
人民币汇率
资本账户管制
货币政策
RMB exchange rate
capital account control
monetary policy
