摘要
工程量清单计价模式下,建筑市场的公开竞争促使施工企业科学地运用决策分析以获取项目。清单招标一般都采用单价合同,投标人要承担组价的全部风险,而出于种种原因,综合单价中的风险费用一直未得到投标人的充分重视。此文在深入理解综合单价的基础上,系统地分析了报价风险,以此为基础构建风险分析和评估数学模型;再以随机抽样为主要手段,运用蒙特卡罗模拟技术对模型进行风险分析,得出综合单价风险概率分布,从而为投标人的报价决策提供依据。综合单价报价风险决策方法的研究对施工企业投标报价风险分析和评估具有积极的意义。
Under the mode of the quantities bill valuation, the open competition of construction market urge to that construction enterprises focus their attention to the decision and analysis of acquiring the project. The bill of quantities bidding usually adopts the fixed unit price contract, bidder must undertake the whole quota- tion risk. The risk of unit price not got enough attention to bidders all the time because of various reason. Based on the comprehensive decomposition of consolidated unit price, this paper systematically analyzed various price quotation risks in submission of tender, built risk analysis of unit price and evaluated mathematical model which based on the theory of probability statistics, applied the head means of random sampling, used the monte -carlo simulation technique for risk analysis and simulation, gotten the unit price risk probability distribution function. The result can be beneficial to the renderers strategic decision. The study of comprehensive price quotation＇s risk decision - making method is a meaningful and positive learning to bidding price risk analysis and evaluation.
出处
《铁路工程造价管理》
2010年第4期21-24,共4页
Railway Engineering Cost Management
关键词
综合单价
风险评估
模拟技术
consolidated unit price
risk evaluation
simulation technique
